ForecastCheck – Track Forecast Bias
Quantify local weather forecast error for planning, farming, and outdoor activities.
- Problem
- Many people suspect forecasts run cold, especially in summer when actual days end up hotter. Official agencies rarely publish searchable historical forecast bias, so users have only suspicion, not numbers.
- Solution
- Continuously collect official forecasts and actual observations for a location, compute temperature bias and precipitation hit rate by city, season, and forecast horizon, and surface how much the local forecast typically over- or under-predicts.
- Users
- Outdoor workers, runners and cyclists, farmers, event planners, and data-driven decision makers.
- MVP
- Scheduled scraping of public forecast and observation data; bias computation by city and horizon; simple charts and a today trust score; weekly email/push digest; multi-city comparison.
- Revenue
- Free basic lookup plus subscription for multi-city comparison, history export, and API access; usage-based API pricing for agriculture and event businesses.
- Why now
- Extreme weather is rising and public interest in forecast accuracy is high, but no one offers transparent bias tracking. Public data plus simple math makes it indie-friendly.